On an eerie note fitting for a Friday the 13th, it's been revealed that the asteroid Apophis might, against all odds, have a minuscule shot at striking Earth during its close encounter on the ominous date of April 13, 2029. Yet, to befall such an event, a cascade of highly improbable cosmic coincidences would need to align.

While there's no immediate alarm, the scenario unfolds as follows: for Apophis, an asteroid bearing the name of an Egyptian deity of chaos, to threaten our planet, it would require an unprecedented cosmic intervention—a well-aimed collision with another space rock that could nudge it onto a collision trajectory with Earth. The likelihood of such a misfortune? A staggering one-in-2-billion, as per the recent calculations by astronomer Paul Wiegert.

Wiegert, hailing from Western University in Canada, had previously dismissed the collision hypothesis in a study in March. However, in an unexpected turn, he revisited the scenario, considering the possibility of Apophis being struck by the frequent, albeit unpredictable, small space rocks that pelt Earth.

If such a highly unlikely event were to transpire, the study published in The Planetary Science Journal in August suggests a slender chance that Apophis could be set on a catastrophic path towards Earth. The NASA spacecraft OSIRIS-APEX is poised to scrutinize Apophis, employing its thrusters to disturb the asteroid's surface, as depicted in a NASA artist's rendering.

Astronomers have been vigilantly observing Apophis since its discovery in 2004, when it was first perceived as a significant threat. However, subsequent observations have reassured us that there will be no impact during its close flyby in April 2029 or in 2036.

In his new study, Wiegert employed computer models to estimate the probability of an undetected asteroid impacting Apophis within the coming years, potentially altering its course towards a fateful rendezvous with Earth. He also examined the size of the object required to displace Apophis from its trajectory and set it on a collision course with Earth beyond 2029.

The not-so-cheerful news? A mere 11-foot-wide space rock could suffice to divert Apophis from its path. The silver lining? The prospect of an unknown asteroid impacting Apophis at all is less than one-in-a-million, with the chance of such an impact leading to a 2029 Earth encounter being even more remote, at one-in-2-billion.

Astronomers anticipate being able to make more definitive observations of Apophis in 2027, when it becomes visible again, allowing for a more precise calculation of any potential deviation in its trajectory before its 2029 flyby. This will be the closest approach to Earth ever recorded for an asteroid of Apophis's magnitude, and one that scientists have been aware of in advance.

"The deflection of Apophis by a small asteroid onto a collision course with Earth in 2029, besides being extremely unlikely, will most likely be swiftly dismissed as a possibility by simple telescopic observations when Apophis returns to visibility in 2027," concluded Wiegert.

Beyond these astronomical predictions, both NASA and the European Space Agency are gearing up to send uncrewed spacecraft to study Apophis during its flyby. NASA's OSIRIS-REx, recently renamed OSIRIS-APophis EXplorer (OSIRIS-APEX), is on a trajectory to intersect with the asteroid in 2029, where it will spend 18 months mapping its surface and analyzing its composition.

The European Space Agency's Ramses mission also aims to meet Apophis before it swings by Earth, accompanying it on its exit from our orbit and studying the changes on the asteroid's surface due to its close proximity to our planet.

These missions are part of a broader strategy by NASA and other space agencies to safeguard humanity from potential asteroid threats, as demonstrated by NASA's successful Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in September 2022, where a spacecraft was intentionally crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos to test the kinetic impact deflection technique.