Forecasting the economy in the age of social media, 24-hour news cycles, and a pandemic that shattered traditional metrics is a daunting task. Yet, as 2024 draws to a close, it's evident that the pessimists predicting a hard landing have been proven wrong. The US economy is defying expectations, showing resilience in employment and pricing.

While the economy isn't flawless and not all Americans are flourishing, key indicators—employment and inflation—are showing promising signs. Jobs are plentiful, wages are on the rise, and inflation is returning to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, the stock market is hitting new highs, reflecting investor confidence.

Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University, encapsulated the sentiment after the impressive September jobs report, asking, "If this is not a soft landing, what is?"

The "soft landing" versus "hard landing" metaphor, often used to describe the economy's trajectory and the Federal Reserve's role, likens the economy to an airplane and the Fed to its pilot. Navigating the economy to a soft landing involves managing inflation while maintaining a thriving labor market. A misstep could lead to recession.

Aaron Sojourner, a labor economist, refuted the hard-landing advocates' belief that high unemployment was necessary to curb inflation, stating, "Inflation is dead, and jobs are alive."

The metaphor isn't a textbook concept, and the Fed doesn't officially declare an economic landing. Like a recession, it's often confirmed retrospectively. Currently, we're experiencing stable prices and maximum employment, but the duration required for this state to be considered a soft landing remains unclear.

The recent jobs report alleviated concerns sparked by the initially gloomy July report, which was revised upwards on Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 254,000 jobs in September,远超预期的140,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.

Economist Justin Wolfers dismissed fears of a slowing job market as a statistical illusion due to incomplete data. Over the past three months, the average monthly job gains have been 186,000, a figure that aligns with expectations.

Even some pessimists are conceding their miscalculation. Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, admitted his overly pessimistic outlook on the US economy in a Bloomberg op-ed. He acknowledged that a recession now seems unlikely.

However, this doesn't mean the economy is entirely out of the woods. The labor market's continued strength is crucial. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, suggests abandoning the soft landing versus hard landing discourse in favor of discussing a robust expansion at mid-cycle, asserting that a recession is "just not happening."